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虽然知道离Busiess020 的最后考试还有一段时间。但是贴出来给大家先有个映像,别到考试的时候抱佛脚。我还会陆续贴出History028E的去年考试卷子。, c& D' G& Q* @* D4 H0 ^9 Q9 c* B
9 n: Q+ f! j' n9 l! uGM Overview( H' H. z- c! O8 X6 B
• Role, Timing, Issues/Decisions, C&Cs
. P! t- E. V( h( N' e9 d) ~• Objectives) r/ [$ g) z3 C
– What do we “WANT” to do?
1 w! _; K/ m3 q. S' Z• External Analysis4 X1 v) Y, k! R, Z9 U+ S2 _
– What do we “NEED” to do?
* ?- U& F& d% Y; i7 l' r* m– PEST, Consumer, Competition, Trade
+ \# s8 U1 ?4 N8 I7 a5 J+ S8 {• opportunities & threats; E. k, {& r- `
– IMPLICATIONS: KSFs
1 n" v5 [# i5 C3 [; ^% u& Q* p• Internal Analysis
' N' g- v: A1 f5 f1 F– What “CAN” we do?
5 E7 F" c- I- { c– Finance, Marketing, Ops, HR/ T/ @" j' M1 G
• abilities, strengths & weaknesses
, o. z' V( k' U; X0 C+ Q: W4 w– IMPLICATIONS: KSFs, CORPORATE CAPABILITIES3 z$ ]9 F0 i8 k7 u; ~0 b W
* }/ E/ S+ A3 S• Alternative Evaluation0 x/ f2 i2 O) A, F
– What are the options?! T. ^( v4 m, l- s, X" z
– Evaluate the pros & cons of the options) L3 I U( m# g7 A8 \
– How does this option “FIT”?- f( F: ~* q4 e# B0 Q5 s" e
– (you may be able to eliminate options based exclusively on the poor “FIT”qualitatively - if so, make sure you explain why this option was nixed)% }9 r' x- `6 j$ L3 S# Y6 j7 o5 E
– Financial Feasibility (of AT LEAST 2-3 options that might “work”) 6 C3 Z$ g: V P3 D
# e1 Q6 ]* t2 K
• Decision
+ l% K1 X" ]$ T" q. E$ [8 N– Justify why you chose a particular option(s).
/ T# k# o4 P9 l; k6 _– YOU SHOULD BE CONVINCING
N5 z) w! {- \, E• Which strategy best meets the firm’s objectives?
! t# F7 _; Y1 s• Does it satisfy the personal objectives as well? R- N Q! q) _- G! P( z
• Have you addressed the cons of the chosen alternative?
5 U7 _6 |3 z5 a. [% X u F; \8 ^• Is this decision consistent with the analysis you’ve done? EXPLAIN! (FITS)% O1 P$ M) g- i
• Why NOT the other options?
8 P1 q+ M' R% n6 G4 l• How does this choice affect Finance, Marketing, Ops and HR? What changes
" T. z' y! ~- ]need to be made?
% {% D7 M& Q7 W; z4 M' P; Q4 H& A* h& m, E3 s
• Action Plan
# z3 g* ]5 C6 U6 m1 s( W• Map out a clear and precise implementation plan which includes;( k7 S% Z. h- x, y7 h
– details which address what steps you have to take to implement your7 p- l) m+ L4 w7 {; l
decision
* P4 I) n9 r( [; h, |3 K0 @– details about timing
) w/ F( g* x+ x0 f0 f. V– details about WHO will be responsible for accomplishing the ‘task’& i, C7 L% {' M! K: c$ F
– how will you follow-up your plan (measure success)! A7 U' t( p/ r- j" _
– make sure to consider both the short term and long term
0 g0 z5 F: E. Y1 ~# A: x
" j( G6 p* }$ [Firm Valuation
) o% C, D' \% G( c' p: i# U- v• Used to help managers determine the “price” of a company.
. d/ ?9 c5 S# o# Z% z6 ^! q& Q• 3 methods of valuing a firm;
% ?& K" D7 E; O; B7 P– Net Book Value
3 P* H% \* ^& x1 a( S– Economic Appraisal
. N1 ^7 X! a; ? f– Capitalization of Earnings
, L: |2 }) \# c• Using all 3 methods (if possible) helps us to determine a RANGE of what the
0 }2 x& A2 S$ y; N( [company is worth.2 U6 M( R* [- N3 g0 Z( P
• THINK!!! What are you really selling? Will anyone pay for it? How much will they pay???
! h/ K r5 a& c( A, Y% l) Y' h
9 S) A* _$ I4 ~3 Y# t3 u" @& W Net Book Value (NBV)
) m& X0 ^5 e3 r+ x9 E s– Total Assets - Total Liabilities) d/ z2 n- _1 U& }) B
• a.k.a.. the equity
* P& W7 d* p9 n9 @( Q8 f– Does not account for the present market value of the assets/ c* j; ]6 y3 B4 F* y
– Calculated using the most recent given balance sheet# R+ t9 v- y+ q8 z( Z, e: O
– Preferred method for banks, creditors, and/or buyers who are interested in selling off the assets of the business# s1 k5 O! i, H5 D
1 q# Z- p# T2 V7 Z9 K i Economic Appraisal (EA)" p+ O4 V: n, c6 u% ^$ H
– Similar to NBV, but tries to reflect the current market value of the assets; Z- D7 V! k4 y1 x- m
– Total Appraised Assets – Total Liabilities
' t$ N% Q8 b, i– Preferred by buyers who are interested in a company for its assets/ h& ~1 F$ p" D5 `/ I
$ z% p/ m% M9 ~+ e
Capitalization of Earnings (CE)
; @0 J2 H# I% Q, e– Focuses on the I/S instead of the B/S
1 r$ j/ [) q+ n+ }3 a• Attempt to value the company in terms of the future income it may provide.
& }0 r3 [! i7 }4 [( T– NPAT * P/E ratio = value( U# j2 S5 z/ e8 U1 y B5 n
– Must evaluate two different earnings figures (to determine risk & range)8 s& ~; M& A) e3 b
• Assuming changes (projected statement)! ~8 r6 y$ {: ^$ Q" G
• Assuming no changes (current given I/S)
+ ^/ T. g. I$ H/ F5 x* ^– Select a reasonable P/E multiple
5 s& G _0 `& Z– Preferred by buyers interested in the ongoing operation of the company (i.e.taking over as management)% I& P: Q% @. O- F+ ]
: I' q- P4 s+ u4 `5 q6 Z
• P/E Multiple
& B: _: n2 S- q+ U) c* R– Rules of thumb;
4 S1 E% l; k4 l# I: S• Mature industries with stable earnings tend to have multiples: o/ m! c& X! {1 }* E3 A
from 5 to 15.
1 w' \; w a; N- d2 t2 Y• High growth industries tend to have multiples exceeding 20.
" q! Y9 [( e6 _4 a. @• “Growth is good; risk is rotten!”- {: o% V# t: @1 @, B) U# {
– growth increases a multiple1 a* y. @ E& x+ K8 d
– risk decreases a multiple% R8 D- ^+ @4 b3 u
8 Q6 c' Q6 z5 k1 ^: |
Their Associated Ratios
8 a1 a; I a$ ^• Profitability;
- u4 R1 r, g5 q* d# O9 a. D– Business goal - to make $$
+ r6 t( |0 ^, h9 k4 |– Ratios measures how much money we had to spend to make $X in sales$ Z( T+ c/ {+ n
• Stability;7 J+ }& P+ L0 E: A! R# s- G
– Business goal - to have a stable financial structure (balance its ownership of assets with debt and equity)
/ K1 \1 K" ^) g% K) k4 M- E1 f– Ratios measure the firm’s means of financing assets and ability to pay interest on debts+ l6 \+ ]% D& y1 t
( D$ {( N2 S2 A1 T
5 Financial Goals &Their Associated Ratios
/ O7 w# S0 y0 s! I# f! R5 L • Liquidity;" ^) j1 w. B! i7 S& v- j) `
– Business goal - ability to meet s-t obligations
4 H( O% _+ J! a5 c' \– Ratios measure how liquid the firm is (how able the firm is to pay its shortterm: d2 _* s: F7 j- F, S
obligations)
+ X8 p% u& m* U; ^• Efficiency;* E0 U# _* @9 m/ N# M5 e
– Business goal - to efficiently use assets, M- W+ E+ [) F+ W
– Ratios tell us how efficiently we are using our investments: o# l4 c0 r# F& G1 }7 ^# t
~( w3 F s5 K+ K( `2 [# y& R" ~
• Growth;
, g8 r, D: O9 Y1 Y6 k& r+ e– Business goal - to increase in size( B+ o! Q v" I" m2 M0 _, k
– Ratios tell us whether the company is achieving any growth; c; J6 m' x8 D! t8 y: U
8 i& A, L; q/ x @& I. s; f
Interpreting the Ratios6 e* ]; Z' v) t" p5 C
• Profitability;! o! x1 B* V* r7 Q6 x' B# v* m
– Vertical Analysis (of I/S)- o( [$ U0 b$ s* \+ p' |9 X& ]
I/S items * 100 = % : ~9 L+ |; o6 B+ S/ \8 Q
Sales4 b4 ]" l' N% y4 |. S; Q
• Tells us it cost us X% of sales to make those sales: z1 s+ y) X- W: v1 s8 n6 i
– Return on Investment/Equity: X- ^# b! M" u. G2 r
Profit ATB4D = % 1 b8 z: O) L& R* u7 p$ l
Average Equity
+ j; u o# u9 i$ ], m% A9 B[(Yr. 1 E + Yr. 2 E)/2]
( J8 D1 }% E8 t; r3 [• Tells us how much profit we made relative to the investment made by the owners/ B: ]' l. ~9 F/ U, L2 d, P
. m# y& q* w$ |! T( E! B6 ~& E• Stability;
% K' |! B2 D: i8 m– Net Worth: Total Assets" n7 ~* [, t. {4 G5 N
Total Equity = % 5 g) U U, l9 c z" I0 \" w
Total Assets0 O5 D5 H# E9 Z7 ?
• tells us what % of assets were financed through owner’s money
. g- H* _" [3 Y- U$ p– Debt to Assets w% X9 d( }4 Y( n% V( P( e
Total Debt = %
% ^+ W7 h2 Q+ [; N9 L) X% p# q( sTotal Assets* ?' s/ l- m0 U8 O: @( O
• Tells us what % of the assets were financed through debt; B, T& z" i: J
– Interest Coverage' V U$ P% i( z7 J
EBIT = # times
* N+ |' [; b" J* c/ X2 G5 D% E7 LInterest Expense
' Z. m; W& B$ D; Y5 N• tells us how many times we can pay interest' l. P8 y! V: {. O) F
! C0 J1 ]+ K9 Q& j5 J& x2 ?
• Liquidity;5 D; ]( Q/ y7 w- A- k, m- J
– Current Ratio1 v8 s# g* x- G, f/ m( t3 P) R
Current Assets = X:15 e! [+ z, _# R u& @2 ?
Current Liabilities$ B2 ^4 C' ?& S; C; [' S: \' t. }
• Tells us, if we liquidated all our current assets, how many times we can pay our debts" H% R& j1 n/ Y( N' R
RULE OF THUMB: 2:14 D, V- x- E! X' A/ }0 B8 N4 r
– Acid Test1 F) O c2 v0 i
Cash + M/S + A/R = X:1
5 s* a" r& U8 ?7 `Current Liabilities
4 w$ _7 n; s' E" T• Tells us how many times we can pay our debts with the money easily available to us
7 |5 ~* E* h8 j4 ]RULE OF THUMB: 1:18 [& T3 k% H6 H
Z, e5 M U; u9 N) b9 b6 J– Working Capital2 v+ j/ E: d" d( |# P
C.A - C.L = $X) x( h8 h) j/ s8 ]; M
• Tells us how much money we have to work with AFTER s-t debts are paid
. l* C0 j3 F( A& i! y4 P0 D' k3 v5 ?$ i3 |# u% M# Q, U
Efficiency;" ]( o1 d2 S0 c
– Age of Receivables/ Z5 }, E }/ \3 ~! G6 a
Accounts Receivabl = # Days
! D7 L* \# f1 ^+ H _4 L; v- ] (Sales / 365)' Q* \3 g5 r. t% o: z
• Tells us how long it takes us to collect our $$2 T4 f! J& ?" ~' {* x- p
+ ]2 m C B. ], \& M$ @
– Age Of Payables2 u& v3 U, N* z
Accounts Payable = # Days/ d7 L3 p) {% `) Z8 s7 b- s9 ~
(Purchases* / 365)6 e. [ q& b9 c
• Tells us how long it takes us to pay our bills
( r* o. I8 W% v/ D( H- \' x' @* R" V/ t# ]
– Age of Inventory
* _) \: |5 L6 Y) { Inventory = # Days: |" L3 R; j( k: G& }
(COGS / 365)
v, p/ r, A9 v S! e5 u9 a• Tells us how long we are holding on to our inventory in the warehouse+ c7 X7 U- c: M# n
~: J/ z4 d: l& k9 L) h4 O
• Growth;
' f9 j6 f6 E2 W4 G5 o" H/ i4 j– Sales
% q9 d, T3 M' A2 b– Net Income: f2 u2 d! q. n* n+ j. [
– Total Assets
; h; T& P& B \& e0 v– Equity
0 I* Z5 s) B, GYr. 2 - Yr. 1 = %9 T1 @6 z( c) c2 _0 p: r* L( n
Yr. 10 T! h2 }* ]/ T
• Tells us whether the accounts are growing (and hence the company)
( T0 l! S8 A6 p8 R a' a4 \' u8 j
Understanding Ratios
! Y0 Y6 Z4 K7 T' b, g• DO NOT CONCLUDE THAT “THE RATIO IS GOOD/BAD”
e8 `2 S5 t- P• Either the NUMERATOR or the DENOMINATOR affects the ratio
3 M$ [! x* I, F• Ask yourself: “WHY HAS THE RATIO CHANGED & WHAT DOES THIS MEAN?”
4 C: j$ M4 [; `& H7 c% y– Which number caused the change?
$ x; {( v& e& ]6 ^! p+ y9 M& z– Look for increasing or decreasing trends over time.
+ J2 o# r; ~* Z% g– Will these trends continue?
) m1 `9 K; G* a' g, e– How does the company compare to the industry?5 @* g u1 r' e6 X$ S; k& r" d2 l) C
' N2 J4 \/ _+ l) u- J e
: F0 Q% H, g( `- A' v8 d+ k- \
Classifying Costs
/ g4 c y+ r" ]& v5 m$ h' l, Y* s• Variable Costs
( Z! Q/ f& W9 L– a cost incurred with every unit sold/produced (volume)
; J' N% c- D$ S: y# }4 K# P• Fixed Costs
4 a) V8 ?+ E8 K: l, g– cost that does not vary with volume |
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