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虽然知道离Busiess020 的最后考试还有一段时间。但是贴出来给大家先有个映像,别到考试的时候抱佛脚。我还会陆续贴出History028E的去年考试卷子。
% K. b! e" a2 ~* S
/ f1 H4 p" O) N' U+ a7 E" PGM Overview/ U/ D- X7 X! u8 v6 }2 v, O3 N
• Role, Timing, Issues/Decisions, C&Cs0 w2 |+ a5 e" P( V& R2 Y; R: C! p
• Objectives. ]8 ]3 g3 |$ d% @5 D: Q0 L. u
– What do we “WANT” to do?
$ K) `4 t4 K- C8 N. X• External Analysis
% R9 M; h5 L4 [4 X+ w% x8 W– What do we “NEED” to do?
5 V: }8 |* C- N– PEST, Consumer, Competition, Trade* A: |3 c* n- l: P( C! m5 P
• opportunities & threats
; E( X' x4 H `2 ]– IMPLICATIONS: KSFs# }+ L7 ^9 |4 \. B+ U9 I9 E) W. z
• Internal Analysis
2 M. {2 \2 |4 R– What “CAN” we do?! s2 ?9 e- {/ A+ r8 N/ q2 p
– Finance, Marketing, Ops, HR& d+ @: `, ~% {; P5 e7 U% n
• abilities, strengths & weaknesses- V$ H6 j5 ~5 r, d0 T
– IMPLICATIONS: KSFs, CORPORATE CAPABILITIES
; A5 D4 Y4 Y. p, x; y9 k* }. o4 F
% e2 m, n' f$ X; ~& c- B( U E• Alternative Evaluation2 b ^! A, M- Y' v
– What are the options?5 t# e" c5 c# Y$ U* m7 ?( K" F
– Evaluate the pros & cons of the options
" |0 J. [$ N! F5 m0 S; t$ F– How does this option “FIT”?- f) y4 t2 z1 y& |1 x
– (you may be able to eliminate options based exclusively on the poor “FIT”qualitatively - if so, make sure you explain why this option was nixed)' c% X( \- F" Q6 o/ Z9 K+ W4 }% |
– Financial Feasibility (of AT LEAST 2-3 options that might “work”) & i" g3 t" \% o8 `& ?1 ^8 c
6 |- P% I3 ~0 N- P" i4 c" H/ E' \• Decision& ?# g$ U! D0 z+ _& J- A
– Justify why you chose a particular option(s).: \! I- |* ]5 ~1 @0 U
– YOU SHOULD BE CONVINCING
& [ q' G) m/ B0 D3 Y o• Which strategy best meets the firm’s objectives?
& f4 S5 W: o0 {/ t! y• Does it satisfy the personal objectives as well?
; y# W6 T- ^ t" E" v- q• Have you addressed the cons of the chosen alternative?
8 V$ ^' u- G1 f: A7 I# q: e• Is this decision consistent with the analysis you’ve done? EXPLAIN! (FITS)
9 V, b1 V& g: X* W. U• Why NOT the other options?
' A$ T0 C. v8 a, a/ o0 H; N0 {4 z& D• How does this choice affect Finance, Marketing, Ops and HR? What changes
0 `9 d/ _8 x. {& S! hneed to be made?# c0 z4 U% p) I+ V0 s% }0 e
5 _* X( I/ M: a( A& ~• Action Plan" B& T! v5 C. F, [
• Map out a clear and precise implementation plan which includes;6 u2 x8 |& D9 R: |( a
– details which address what steps you have to take to implement your
2 p5 h' X. S* i6 D# }decision
/ V( K$ e- o+ m* q4 o– details about timing
7 P& H/ _/ j# ?" X. \4 ]% {– details about WHO will be responsible for accomplishing the ‘task’" l* s- T4 V5 C) k
– how will you follow-up your plan (measure success)
( U! Y- ~% h$ }9 c9 w1 {6 o$ G– make sure to consider both the short term and long term
; P- \/ K8 R- }0 y6 z9 j. S
" L Z1 D+ H# @8 W0 S _+ X+ cFirm Valuation2 d6 i" o3 _) \" `4 g- r. N, Z' E9 Y
• Used to help managers determine the “price” of a company.
! b% k& H/ \7 F9 E. K; ^5 @• 3 methods of valuing a firm;
& f# O5 c6 C$ P* N– Net Book Value
' L5 u9 s! p0 Q– Economic Appraisal5 ]+ T# n& {4 {+ t2 t
– Capitalization of Earnings
) _2 v! W; l& x& B7 U ]" I• Using all 3 methods (if possible) helps us to determine a RANGE of what the
; k7 B0 m$ ~- C; K* _, X% K$ ]2 h! Rcompany is worth.
5 C( U2 c. H8 q4 D |1 [( G• THINK!!! What are you really selling? Will anyone pay for it? How much will they pay???2 i7 W' `% ]5 j# y
) U& g2 a& Z X0 v1 t* U: l: c3 h
Net Book Value (NBV)* f7 e$ W& C8 y( |
– Total Assets - Total Liabilities
$ f' u$ A6 {1 ^# u0 H6 h• a.k.a.. the equity
& C0 Q2 Z- a$ ?# ]– Does not account for the present market value of the assets) p& t* e2 H# m F
– Calculated using the most recent given balance sheet" `2 J& |( ^5 k* v: c) } ~
– Preferred method for banks, creditors, and/or buyers who are interested in selling off the assets of the business; ^% U; I8 x/ b, z
% O4 J( T g( `3 K2 ^# |8 J
Economic Appraisal (EA)
% i+ F! v y( t' _6 w- p7 ?1 H8 j– Similar to NBV, but tries to reflect the current market value of the assets
7 A3 F- S& \7 \% |$ `" g– Total Appraised Assets – Total Liabilities
+ r1 T, B& W, `0 R– Preferred by buyers who are interested in a company for its assets
0 e! B4 Y: n# S' |0 ~* }9 l* X% Y) Z
Capitalization of Earnings (CE): u9 ^( n# f7 q q8 B N" ]; Q
– Focuses on the I/S instead of the B/S& b, y" b- `$ ~3 T
• Attempt to value the company in terms of the future income it may provide.. w' }0 }! _* E: W! G
– NPAT * P/E ratio = value2 ~: b9 {0 {' ^5 d2 }
– Must evaluate two different earnings figures (to determine risk & range)( o4 d: K7 H9 `# B4 Y( [
• Assuming changes (projected statement)
2 w8 U" ~. a# q+ B# x. L• Assuming no changes (current given I/S)
8 k2 x7 C( l) t. _; m& F, [– Select a reasonable P/E multiple4 [ ~! B/ i0 x5 B
– Preferred by buyers interested in the ongoing operation of the company (i.e.taking over as management)% ]* R0 z1 I/ @* p% c3 Z
" r$ d3 t0 X, g; l, K• P/E Multiple- S4 s) u" q# ]( I. Z4 W9 t; [
– Rules of thumb;* F/ b. Z' I/ R: C
• Mature industries with stable earnings tend to have multiples' E. P: w U/ L u) ?
from 5 to 15.
. M4 M) |, Z" P5 N: k4 v• High growth industries tend to have multiples exceeding 20.2 {. @4 x* }" J7 J
• “Growth is good; risk is rotten!”
2 S; I$ d6 u; s2 M) Y9 x– growth increases a multiple
; h3 a- j0 S( y* c6 g4 K– risk decreases a multiple# L* B' |. w. B
4 O8 j: D1 ], P( Y o$ j/ c' h& mTheir Associated Ratios/ k( ?! N: x( s
• Profitability;3 l. z+ Q9 \& G$ J( @
– Business goal - to make $$6 z+ u3 w: n1 t, o+ q; ]" R
– Ratios measures how much money we had to spend to make $X in sales
; K4 X8 T B; c4 x/ B• Stability;9 X( u9 \& H1 L- ^6 R
– Business goal - to have a stable financial structure (balance its ownership of assets with debt and equity)
' B6 K, t6 ]. x! ~; Z% [1 _ |" N– Ratios measure the firm’s means of financing assets and ability to pay interest on debts: Y7 F/ Y' k7 i" g! S( E
1 E3 f' E- \+ D5 M5 Financial Goals &Their Associated Ratios
; B! G8 Z7 O( l, n; `" J, O • Liquidity;2 q5 |- u1 X3 w$ ^; U
– Business goal - ability to meet s-t obligations7 H+ q( W3 i6 ~
– Ratios measure how liquid the firm is (how able the firm is to pay its shortterm, K. k. Z9 ^' v% d
obligations)7 A6 ]$ r; e. o9 R+ j% V
• Efficiency;, p4 z* G' \6 M, v& o1 u5 g3 a
– Business goal - to efficiently use assets$ t3 E1 s' @* `+ m" ~5 ~1 P9 @. ^
– Ratios tell us how efficiently we are using our investments6 f2 w. H3 @, B, B
0 O$ y! J# A# d ^# _9 ~. A• Growth;) O; [- y- l4 [. i5 ]
– Business goal - to increase in size# u1 z! V; r2 W) F; d) R3 \: s4 y! v' K) ]
– Ratios tell us whether the company is achieving any growth; ?* }0 |, d4 ^3 j9 e6 c
7 t5 ]' M! m( m7 F/ Y* t2 E
Interpreting the Ratios
$ G4 D$ r3 N% i: M/ v' @+ P+ @• Profitability;
) `& T4 ~) N# t$ b* o, f– Vertical Analysis (of I/S)
: G( R, k( G T3 ZI/S items * 100 = %
$ \: b7 P& o" n9 ?( C \. [, W Sales
8 S X: @& i* }4 r% M• Tells us it cost us X% of sales to make those sales0 q1 C! E/ ]$ ~
– Return on Investment/Equity
1 V- W5 u& w6 H1 u' d& P9 MProfit ATB4D = %
( j" g! ^+ f9 D8 R" fAverage Equity
: h4 l5 Q8 _0 j- I# \* u9 k- T[(Yr. 1 E + Yr. 2 E)/2]2 }7 e3 Q. [3 W, L9 y, F- ?
• Tells us how much profit we made relative to the investment made by the owners# m; i" d3 K! M. O, E( f
- \/ T0 @/ K/ O/ t6 O$ C- \• Stability;, Z8 x: e" i7 Y# D# m9 U$ [- T
– Net Worth: Total Assets
: r' S$ e5 t, j# `9 _3 RTotal Equity = %
& `: C: F5 k9 p! p; k G9 cTotal Assets: e( ~+ t( _ Y8 n: Q# w0 o" J
• tells us what % of assets were financed through owner’s money
& J6 T7 o8 j% F: Y– Debt to Assets
) ^3 N' z' {0 p" Q4 qTotal Debt = % ; E) ^4 ?5 J- y2 o6 H; q# I
Total Assets1 X( y7 o7 o( N3 `& y1 x3 c
• Tells us what % of the assets were financed through debt
! |$ ~* v d" D7 j4 h2 T/ W– Interest Coverage
4 }/ ~ v# k3 P1 A9 @0 C EBIT = # times1 Z; S0 X3 t$ z8 Q
Interest Expense& G" W1 `$ \4 L
• tells us how many times we can pay interest: v0 @. p3 Y Z6 ]5 `$ j/ ^$ v; R
; ?0 @( p/ v7 y, I0 C/ C
• Liquidity;
" k! _- W% j( l1 H9 ~+ y1 _8 f( D– Current Ratio
, H( H* M( K7 h3 E$ k6 i+ r5 O: ]Current Assets = X:14 T1 Y) z4 D9 Q# z8 e: @
Current Liabilities
7 M9 y1 {1 T4 E! N- U6 P9 x. G! N4 H• Tells us, if we liquidated all our current assets, how many times we can pay our debts4 o" ~8 w/ y# {: s. |6 @+ R+ I
RULE OF THUMB: 2:1" t; w& B" n& T* j1 ^
– Acid Test
5 b3 `/ d e, p2 E7 T) A1 M5 h- KCash + M/S + A/R = X:14 L c5 J1 l/ H5 [" n" V) _
Current Liabilities. t' I) O# } w1 `5 P" m0 n
• Tells us how many times we can pay our debts with the money easily available to us) ?6 ~4 q, C# P5 |; R- f
RULE OF THUMB: 1:18 ] E4 u0 _5 \: T$ E& g! J% q% `4 i
4 C: G; o0 _' `) i7 i$ N. x7 |2 m– Working Capital
4 t% F' a( S' G- AC.A - C.L = $X
7 H" S2 f+ \: |4 H• Tells us how much money we have to work with AFTER s-t debts are paid
" C4 X* N9 U: Q6 B- n! X S% v; X
0 E# A: p5 p% [& ?, j& {4 n# Z5 Y2 AEfficiency;; |4 D6 P* \7 Y r4 @3 j( ^# I
– Age of Receivables
& `. C9 R- k7 X! }- f, @Accounts Receivabl = # Days
2 `3 k+ s8 V d( h1 c, W Y (Sales / 365)( d: C) ~5 ~2 h- e) B
• Tells us how long it takes us to collect our $$0 `- F# T$ b: g; D5 v8 w- n
& _( X; j9 e- V+ H– Age Of Payables
. t& h) V" U" N/ HAccounts Payable = # Days5 ~2 m- o" F* z) E$ [2 \, p! E
(Purchases* / 365)
3 P0 a2 ]& Q( J8 _" g5 m9 Q2 B• Tells us how long it takes us to pay our bills: A+ o! m/ C) ]! ^
) l4 {4 n5 A7 o% K( I( m3 k– Age of Inventory& g5 }# w+ z( F: `9 i" X6 x' x
Inventory = # Days6 @. i8 q" ` n2 V9 k! [0 l1 ~, e% j
(COGS / 365)+ r$ A, \# t$ B# R5 m
• Tells us how long we are holding on to our inventory in the warehouse
. z: `1 H5 P9 i! S0 q* B) Y$ c" } N H3 g$ r
• Growth;
0 d" s7 P! p) I( j6 o– Sales% L; z6 o* p$ Y. }% C6 j
– Net Income
6 F$ a( }; I0 S– Total Assets+ z7 ]% G1 n. N, r" W
– Equity
9 M' x- W- y- g5 t7 GYr. 2 - Yr. 1 = %7 \5 U$ E& d s; V+ T
Yr. 1
1 y- ?% D8 |- n( G' m• Tells us whether the accounts are growing (and hence the company)
* o7 @ i# v$ q
0 @+ p& q: t9 WUnderstanding Ratios' n5 g8 e2 f8 y
• DO NOT CONCLUDE THAT “THE RATIO IS GOOD/BAD”4 Y( m! f# ~, a! i5 @- V
• Either the NUMERATOR or the DENOMINATOR affects the ratio
: t( F/ Y& I t• Ask yourself: “WHY HAS THE RATIO CHANGED & WHAT DOES THIS MEAN?”7 k; v) D% O* G/ x p
– Which number caused the change?; W* h5 T& a/ o" _4 E
– Look for increasing or decreasing trends over time.
: ^2 B7 g7 v) ` J+ i7 {# y– Will these trends continue?
P4 f! o# q. p6 F2 X% H" Q" K– How does the company compare to the industry?
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/ N% u' J- S6 S) |; y7 H M3 l" i8 P2 X# k) N
Classifying Costs/ F9 v; `: y" {
• Variable Costs
9 g% r8 z8 w J( b) E( W& E– a cost incurred with every unit sold/produced (volume)
5 K4 }4 z1 w! Y• Fixed Costs( i8 o; `/ P( T5 u/ s3 ^
– cost that does not vary with volume |
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